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VIDEO – France with a labor shortage by 2030: these regions will be left without hands


It’s a French paradox! While the unemployment rate in mainland France remains high (7.1% in the third quarter of 2022, according to INSEE), several thousand jobs are scrambling to find applicants. Thus, at the end of last year, 370,000 jobs remained vacant in France. A number that will only increase in the coming years.

According to the latest report from Dares, the statistics office of the Department of Labor, 760,000 jobs per year will need to be filled by 2030, including nine out of ten related to retirement and one out of ten related to new jobs, total for 640,000 people. young people enter the market. Due to the mass exodus of baby boomers in the 1960s. “Regardless of territory, these new entrants into the labor market will generally be less numerous than older people who are permanently leaving it”, notes the study. Due to this “marked imbalance”Occupations, whose recruitment difficulties will increase over the next decade, will account for about 25% of jobs in 2019.

Occupations causing rising tensions include repairmen (488,000 vacancies due to be filled between 2019 and 2030), teachers (329,000), domestic helpers (305,000) and vehicle drivers (301,000). At the same time, other positions are expected to experience growing human needs. This includes: IT engineers (+26% of the workforce in 2019 and 2030), nurses/midwives (+18%), carers (+15%) and sales managers (+17%).

A very dynamic Occitania… and in a difficult position

On closer inspection, the difficulties vary by region. Thus, this escalation of tensions will “more noticeable in the southern and western territories, where the job market is already very tight”, points to Dares. This is due to the dynamism of employment, especially in fast-growing professions. Thus, by 2030, 9% of jobs will not be filled in Occitania, which creates twice as many jobs as in the rest of France.

However, this local labor market “attracts workers from other regions (mainly from the Paris area), influenced by metropolitan areas, climate and availability of coastlines”these streams will “not enough to balance the job market as there are fewer young newcomers.” “Since there are not very many young people, even if we add workers to them who will join Occitania during their career, this is completely insufficient to cover all needs.“, confirms TF1 Céline Joly, co-author of the report Working in 2030.

Training is one of the means to match demand and needs.

Ministry of Labor

On the ground, the situation is already difficult. In the Menway temporary agency at Narbonne, fifteen permanent positions are to be filled without a single candidate. “He goes from industrial designer to truck mechanic, order picker or even maintenance technician.”, explains TF1 Laura Gonzalez, recruiting officer. Skilled labor is becoming increasingly scarce, with a few exceptions. “Young people today are more likely to study in cities like Montpellier or Toulouse, which offer more qualified training. And then they stay in such a big city, which is more attractive to them. Among caregivers, recruitment is no less difficult. “It’s difficult because it’s a job that doesn’t pay off. That’s why people are afraid.”– emphasizes Francesca Troya Brebion, head of the Apef agency.

These recruitment difficulties should be particularly exacerbated in Brittany (42% of jobs with rising tensions by 2030), the Pays de la Loire (36%) and New Aquitaine (33%). Atlantic façade “benefits essentially from the influx of retirees or households without children, and may be hurt by the departure of young people who go to study or seek their first job elsewhere”highlights the government.

Other regions spared

In contrast, the interior regions (Burgundy-Franche-Comté and Center-Val-de-Loire), less densely populated, as well as the Grand Orient and Haute-de-France, “less pronounced imbalance due to weaker job creation”. For various reasons, notably a younger population, the Île-de-France will far outperform and have the lowest share of employment in the face of rising tensions (11%). Due to the large offer of higher education, it has a concentration of many young people who choose to study there and start their careers.

In its report, the Ministry of Labor recommends several solutions. “In order to achieve a balance between needs and labor resources, it will be necessary to hire specialists from a different profession, the unemployed, inactive or immigrants.”the authors note. “Training is one of the (other) means of ensuring a match between labor demand and employers’ action needs”, they add. Hiring more seniors can also help close this gap.

mg | TF1 Report Alice Becott, Lucas Garcia and Manon Scarzello

Source: TF1



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