WorldPresidential elections in Turkey: why is Erdogan the favorite today?

Presidential elections in Turkey: why is Erdogan the favorite today?


We thought he was weakened, he had never been so close to winning a third presidential term. Recep Tayyip Erdogan still manages to excite his supporters, as he did this Saturday during his last meeting before the second round vote.

This man has been in power for 20 years, first as prime minister and then as president of Turkey, which he has always ruled with an iron fist, especially after 2016 and the failed coup that made him a target at the time. A difficult partner for Westerners, who sometimes threatens Europe with a migration crisis, sometimes poses as a competing mediator of international crises, such as in Syria or Ukraine.

“He said he would rebuild our homes and he will.”

However, the Turks trust him, despite the lack of freedom, despite the economic crisis and galloping inflation. And when survivors of the February earthquake scold the inaction of the authorities, they are still not angry at Erdogan. “Yes, our houses were destroyed, but he said he would restore, and he will do it”says Nursel Karchi, Erdogan’s voter.

His secret: the ability to talk with the popular electorate from the countryside, to flatter the vanity of the Turks, who support his Islamic conservative program and favorably consider, for example, the transformation of Hagia Sophia into a mosque, or even operational muscles. outside.

60 times less media coverage of his opponent

Hanging, 100 years after the establishment of secular Turkey, a return to the former glory of the former Ottoman Empire, he is considered a hopeful man. “Erdogan has a reputation for being tough, so I think voters see him as capable of leading the country in a period that is still very difficult both economically and internationally. He doesn’t even have a program this year. Erdogan is in the elections. He’s just asking voters to give him more time to complete his mission.”explains Dorothea Schmid, Turkey Specialist at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).

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This time, for the first time, he was overthrown by the united opposition, which tried to compete with him on the basis of nationalism. But his main opponent was cleverly muzzled with a 60 times lower exposure than he himself on TV channels. In 20 years of practicing power, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also learned to block the media.


LT | TF1 Report: Michelle Scott, Ignacio Bornacin

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