WorldWar in Ukraine: has the counter-offensive begun?

War in Ukraine: has the counter-offensive begun?


Is it correct this time? After a rebuff on a Sunday morning “large-scale offensive” in the Donbas, Moscow this Thursday confirmed once again that a Ukrainian attack had been repelled, this time in the Zaporozhye region.” never been so close.

“The enemy is stopped and retreats with heavy losses”This was announced at the beginning of the evening by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. And congratulate each other: “Enemy forces specially trained to carry out this breakthrough did not fulfill their task”. Before “1500 men and 150 armored vehicles“would be deployed by Ukraine. However, according to Sergei Shoigu, “as a result of a two-hour battle, the enemy lost 30 tanks, 11 infantry fighting vehicles and up to 350 people”. Without mentioning these figures, washington post for his part, he wrote that the operation began successfully, relying on four sources in the Ukrainian army.

There will be no “announcement of the beginning” of the offensive

If these claims are not verifiable from independent sources, Kyiv’s counter-offensive will take shape over time. Many observers believe that the intensification of “offensive operations” carried out by Kiev along the front line in recent weeks is the first signal of this long-awaited assault.

Among many other signs that this unleashing of fire is imminent: On Sunday, a video broadcast by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense showed soldiers holding their fingers over their mouths to remind the population that “plans love silence, warning that “it will “no start announcement“on the offensive.

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Ukraine simply confirmed that it is fulfilling”offensive action“in certain sectors of the front, while continuing to remain unclear about his actions, for which tanks and other armored vehicles, artillery or long-range western missiles have been supplied and about a dozen new brigades, i.e. approximately 40,000 people, have been formed.

On the ground, pro-Ukrainian Russian forces have been intensifying raids and bombardments of Russian territory in the border region of Belgorod for two weeks. These maneuvers are in addition to numerous sabotage and deep strikes against railway junctions, command centers or even Russian fuel and ammunition depots in recent weeks. A set of operations that experts say are part of a Ukrainian effort to “shape” – an English military term for “simulating” a battlefield on both a tactical and psychological level, in order to establish a favorable balance of power before an attack.

If a major operation is announced, there will be a big unknown left: the location that the Ukrainians will choose to try to break through the Russian positions in the hope of retaking the territories occupied by Moscow. Options include Lugansk Oblast (east), Donbass and Zaporozhye Oblast, where the capture of Melitopol, one of the main Russian-occupied cities in southern Ukraine, would separate Russian forces from the east and south.


Thomas Guyen

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Source: TF1

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