Could lava from the Campi Phlegraean volcano engulf the region of Naples? This sleeping colossus threatens half a million inhabitants. In any case, this is evidenced by the Anglo-Italian study, published on Friday, according to which the risk of an eruption has never been so high.
“This is an extremely dangerous volcano”said Stefano Carlino, co-author of the study by UCL University of London and the Italian Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment. “We are not saying that an eruption will occur, we are saying that conditions for an eruption are more favorable.” today, said UCL’s Christopher Kilburn, in charge of the operation.
More and more pushes since 2019
Less famous than Vesuvius, which wiped out Pompeii almost two thousand years ago, the Champs Elysees Phlegreien volcano last erupted in 1538. However, it is a concern: its energy is such that its eruption 30,000 years ago could have contributed to the extinction. Neanderthal, according to some hypotheses.
A resurgence in activity in the early 1980s led to the evacuation of 40,000 residents, but the volcano has not been talked about since. However, the risk is very real. Tens of thousands of small earthquakes since the 1950s have actually weakened calderathis flat-bottomed volcanic depression, whose “details have been tested almost to the limit”, indicates research. These tremors, more numerous since 2019, have disrupted underground formations. Thus, the municipality of Pozzuoli, in whose territory the volcano is located, has grown over the decades … by four meters.
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The researchers note that the consequences of the activity of the volcano “total“: therefore, there is no need for a significant increase in the intensity of this activity in order to increase the likelihood of an eruption. “A possible eruption may be preceded by relatively weak signals, such as moderate uplift and fewer earthquakes.” they note. However, the likelihood of a mega-eruption “very weak”according to research. “What’s more likely is small eruptions.”
Half a million people live in the high-risk area, and another 800,000 live in the lower-risk area. In the event of an alarm, the plan of the local authorities provides for the evacuation of the population by public transport. The warning level – green, yellow, orange, red – is reviewed every month.
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